Combination of A and B. The modern grid is expensive to build / maintain / operate, for a lot of the reasons that it's expensive to build and maintain and infra in North America. California particularly so, not least because of recent issues with wildfires which have prompted billions in investments from utilities looking to avoid bankruptcy.
Solar and batteries are productized and at the household level are mostly able to sidestep the costs of transmission / distribution, making them cost competitive even though they cost more per kilowatt-hour than their utility-scale versions.
The cost of grid defection changes dramatically as soon as EVs are set up with bidirectional charging. This article assumed $1,000/kWh for battery storage, but an EV with an 80 kWh battery (Chevy Equinox) sells for under $40,000, so $500/kWh with a free car thrown in. If you can run the car from the house, and the house from the car, you gain a lot of flexibility. If you run short of power, you zip down to Walmart and charge up the car, bringing 5 days of power home with you.
I just bought a 100AH 12V LFP battery on TEMU for $129 -- $100/kWh. Take a third off the capital costs in the table above, reflecting current battery costs, and the economics of grid defection become compelling today, not tomorrow.
Super interesting! Three years ago, my husband modeled out the cost of a large solar system on our SoCal house (grid-connected) and the costs didn’t make sense, in part because we’d need to prematurely replace our roof to get solar.
This makes me think that in a couple of years when our roof is at the end of it’s natural life we might have a viable grid-independent solar option. That would be interesting!
Are there any companies now installing grid-independent solar? Or is this just not offered yet?
Nice analysis!
Do you have a sense for why exactly the economics are shifting toward grid defection making sense? For example, I could image that:
A) In an era of cheap solar + batteries, it simply does not make physical sense to connect suburban houses to a grid
B) The grid is not being operated efficiently (operators are too conservative / have bad incentives / are hamstrung by permitting challenges / etc.)
C) Utility prices are inflated by the need to pay off past debts
D) Other (or a combination)
But I have no idea which of these are correct.
Combination of A and B. The modern grid is expensive to build / maintain / operate, for a lot of the reasons that it's expensive to build and maintain and infra in North America. California particularly so, not least because of recent issues with wildfires which have prompted billions in investments from utilities looking to avoid bankruptcy.
Solar and batteries are productized and at the household level are mostly able to sidestep the costs of transmission / distribution, making them cost competitive even though they cost more per kilowatt-hour than their utility-scale versions.
The cost of grid defection changes dramatically as soon as EVs are set up with bidirectional charging. This article assumed $1,000/kWh for battery storage, but an EV with an 80 kWh battery (Chevy Equinox) sells for under $40,000, so $500/kWh with a free car thrown in. If you can run the car from the house, and the house from the car, you gain a lot of flexibility. If you run short of power, you zip down to Walmart and charge up the car, bringing 5 days of power home with you.
I just bought a 100AH 12V LFP battery on TEMU for $129 -- $100/kWh. Take a third off the capital costs in the table above, reflecting current battery costs, and the economics of grid defection become compelling today, not tomorrow.
See: https://energycentral.com/c/um/big-batteries-electric-vehicles-will-accelerate-grid-defection-solar-customers
Super interesting! Three years ago, my husband modeled out the cost of a large solar system on our SoCal house (grid-connected) and the costs didn’t make sense, in part because we’d need to prematurely replace our roof to get solar.
This makes me think that in a couple of years when our roof is at the end of it’s natural life we might have a viable grid-independent solar option. That would be interesting!
Are there any companies now installing grid-independent solar? Or is this just not offered yet?