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Steve Newman's avatar

Nice analysis!

Do you have a sense for why exactly the economics are shifting toward grid defection making sense? For example, I could image that:

A) In an era of cheap solar + batteries, it simply does not make physical sense to connect suburban houses to a grid

B) The grid is not being operated efficiently (operators are too conservative / have bad incentives / are hamstrung by permitting challenges / etc.)

C) Utility prices are inflated by the need to pay off past debts

D) Other (or a combination)

But I have no idea which of these are correct.

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Jim Lazar's avatar

The cost of grid defection changes dramatically as soon as EVs are set up with bidirectional charging. This article assumed $1,000/kWh for battery storage, but an EV with an 80 kWh battery (Chevy Equinox) sells for under $40,000, so $500/kWh with a free car thrown in. If you can run the car from the house, and the house from the car, you gain a lot of flexibility. If you run short of power, you zip down to Walmart and charge up the car, bringing 5 days of power home with you.

I just bought a 100AH 12V LFP battery on TEMU for $129 -- $100/kWh. Take a third off the capital costs in the table above, reflecting current battery costs, and the economics of grid defection become compelling today, not tomorrow.

See: https://energycentral.com/c/um/big-batteries-electric-vehicles-will-accelerate-grid-defection-solar-customers

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