Biofuels for energy dominance
Making aviation great again
With the recent change in the US presidential administration, there is significant uncertainty about US energy policy when it comes to ‘green’ technologies like solar, wind, and sustainable fuels (e.g., hydrogen, sustainable aviation fuel).
Yet an ‘all of the above’ approach to energy dominance—which the US should undoubtedly pursue—has plenty of room for the continued growth of otherwise ‘green’ technologies like biofuels. Along key vectors, these energy sources are simply better than the alternatives.
What follows is a bit tongue-in-cheek, but there are important non-sustainability reasons for continuing to invest in biofuel production, particularly for liquid fuels like methanol and jet fuel.
America is an unmatched energy superpower.
We are the global #1 in oil production, #1 in natural gas production, and #2 in electricity production.
You might wonder then why the Trump administration is so focused on “energy dominance”? They realize that cheap energy is core to human flourishing. You can never have ‘enough’.
Put differently, America should be the shining beacon on the hill burning people’s eyes because of its absurd power output.
In this spirit, in his January 20th executive order “Unleashing American Energy”, Trump gave us his energy priorities: “oil, natural gas, coal, hydropower, biofuels, critical mineral, and nuclear energy resources”.
Maybe you’re already familiar with these changes, nodding along to yourself: “Oil? Yes! Natural gas? YES! Nuclear reactors with big beautiful American flags? FUCK YEAH!!!”
“…biofuels…? Like, ethanol in gasoline?”
Yes, but also so much more.
With recent technical advancements, we stand at the precipice of a new era in liquid fuel production, one that isn’t always obvious to folks not following the space closely. We are nearing the point where we can turn things like household garbage and sawmill waste into jet fuel and methanol at costs competitive with traditional hydrocarbons.
This relies on a range of technologies, from biomass gasification to hydrothermal liquefaction to fermentation, with each converting biological feedstocks into carbon and hydrogen rich chemical precursors that can then be converted into methanol, jet fuel, diesel, and more.
As a complement to nuclear, gas, and solar energy, these will form an important cornerstone of American energy dominance. Even without their sustainability benefits, biofuels have a range of positive attributes that make continued investment a priority.
1. Supports American farmers and foresters
Next-generation biofuels—the kind that can compete head-to-head1 with traditional hydrocarbons on cost—are often made from cellulosic biomass like agricultural and forest waste (think sugar cane husks and wood chips).
Right now, this waste is of little value. Often it is just burnt on-site. Using it to make biofuels provides another source of revenue to the American farmer, one that is detached from the vagaries of global crop prices.
Even better? We can take the waste from better forest management and turn it into literal jet fuel, preventing wildfires in the process!
2. Provides energy security
The US uses ~340 million tonnes of biomass each year—mostly corn for ethanol and wood burned in specialized power plants—but we let another ~350 million tonnes of ag, forest, and municipal waste go to…waste.
This excess alone would have been enough to fully supply the jet fuel needs for the US in 20232.
Beyond this, the DOE estimates there could be another BILLION tonnes of biomass available from expanded energy crops and new production pathways like algae.
Without importing anything, or diverting existing production, we could QUADRUPLE our country’s jet fuel production with biomass.
3. Builds on US petrochemical leadership
Building billion-dollar chemical plants is not trivial, and that is exactly what is required to capture this biofuel opportunity. While not quite chip fabs, they are near-apex technologies for civilizations.
Thankfully, the US already has the engineers, operators, and developers to go do this, on the order of ~250,000 people working directly in the oil and gas industry per the Bureau of Labor Statistics3, not even including the specialized construction trades that physically construct these facilities.
Other countries don’t have this skill base, and will struggle to reap the biofuel bounty alongside the US.
4. Can be sold to Europeans for a big profit
Even if our government isn’t focusing on reducing our carbon emissions, Europe sure is.
They’ve put in place serious mandates for airlines to use ‘sustainable’ fuels, already at millions of gallons a year ramping up to ~20% of all jet fuel by 2035. Yet they can’t serve this demand themselves.
With a history of expensive electricity and expensive natural gas, their chemical industry is an also-ran. This won’t change any time soon; new plants will be slow and expensive to build in Europe. To hit their green mandates, European companies will be forced to import biofuels from the US.
We are already rushing to sell them as much LNG as we can ship out. We should be doing the same with biofuels.
—
Even without focusing on sustainability, biofuels have many advantages for the United States. They aren’t a silver bullet4, but will become an increasingly important part of our energy mix.
It is good that the Trump administration recognizes this, and continues to support this vital industry as it helps unlock a new era of American energy dominance.
For example, most sustainable aviation fuel today is made through the HEFA process from expensive feedstocks like soybean oil. These crops are expensive to produce, and their production cannot be scaled up much, keeping HEFA-derived fuels from being competitive with traditional hydrocarbosn long term.
Assumes a yield of one tonne of jet fuel for every ~5.5 tonnes of biomass.
Here I’m counting chemical engineers (~20k); petroleum engineers (~20k); Derrick, rotary drill, and service unit operators, oil and gas (~75k); Roustabouts, oil and gas (~45k); miscellaneous plant & system oeprators (~85k).
In particular, there is a ceiling for how much can reasonably be produced. Biofuels could reasonably replace all jet fuel in the US, but replacing all liquid fuels generally will require much more scalable technologies using water and CO2 as feedstocks, like those pursued by Terraform Industries, Twelve, Infinium, etc.
Great article. New subscriber to your site. Would love for you to come take a look at our Substack. Energy Vision. We are a non profit focused on guiding a shift to clean and renewable energy resources with a focus on anaerobic digestion and biofuel.